Journal of Soil and Plant Interactions
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1- Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University , r.norooz@sanru.ac.ir
2- Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
2- Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
Abstract: (6 Views)
Background and Objective: The sensitivity of agricultural crops to climatic fluctuations is well-documented. However, assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on the phenological stages of key crops in Mazandaran province—a region with distinct climatic diversity and cultivation practices—remains a critical research need. This study aims to project changes in extreme temperature indices and their subsequent effects on the timing of phenological stages for key agricultural crops in Mazandaran under different climate change scenarios.
Methods: Minimum and maximum temperatures for future periods under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were simulated and statistically downscaled. Extreme temperature indices were then calculated using the RClimDex software. Breakpoints in these indices were identified using the Pettitt test and spatially mapped within a GIS environment. Subsequently, by integrating available climatic and plant data with the ChillR model, phenological shifts for horticultural (Citrus, Kiwifruit, Peach) and field (Rice, Rapeseed) crops were projected under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios and compared against the baseline period (2000-2020).
Results: The results indicate that in the future, heat-related indices such as the number of hot days, warm nights, and the length of the warm period will show a significant increasing trend. Conversely, cold-related indices such as frost days and the length of the cold period will decrease. Furthermore, the findings suggest that rising temperatures will shift the cooling and heating phases, leading to either a delay or an advancement in the flowering time of different crops. Climate change may also positively affect the yield of some crops, such as Kiwifruit.
Conclusion: Increasing temperatures under future scenarios will lead to shifts in plant phenology, alterations in the suitability of agricultural lands, and impacts on farming profitability. These projected climatic impacts underscore the importance of adjusting planting calendars and adopting climate adaptation strategies in sustainable agricultural management
Methods: Minimum and maximum temperatures for future periods under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were simulated and statistically downscaled. Extreme temperature indices were then calculated using the RClimDex software. Breakpoints in these indices were identified using the Pettitt test and spatially mapped within a GIS environment. Subsequently, by integrating available climatic and plant data with the ChillR model, phenological shifts for horticultural (Citrus, Kiwifruit, Peach) and field (Rice, Rapeseed) crops were projected under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios and compared against the baseline period (2000-2020).
Results: The results indicate that in the future, heat-related indices such as the number of hot days, warm nights, and the length of the warm period will show a significant increasing trend. Conversely, cold-related indices such as frost days and the length of the cold period will decrease. Furthermore, the findings suggest that rising temperatures will shift the cooling and heating phases, leading to either a delay or an advancement in the flowering time of different crops. Climate change may also positively affect the yield of some crops, such as Kiwifruit.
Conclusion: Increasing temperatures under future scenarios will lead to shifts in plant phenology, alterations in the suitability of agricultural lands, and impacts on farming profitability. These projected climatic impacts underscore the importance of adjusting planting calendars and adopting climate adaptation strategies in sustainable agricultural management
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Plant growth under stressful conditions
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
Journal of Soil and Plant Interactions by http://jspi.iut.ac.ir is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License which allows users to read, copy, distribute and make derivative works for non-commercial purposes from the material, as long as the author of the original work is cited properly.
